Happy New Year everyone and I hope you all got to have some version of a rest during the holiday break. In my first issue of Tony’s View for 2022 I take a look at the two solid factors which will contribute to a fairly sharp slowing in house price inflation this year, plus the many other factors which will reduce people’s feelings that they need to rush to make a purchase.

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This week’s issue of Tony’s View can be accessed here.
Tony’s View 13 January 2022.pdf (tonyalexander.nz)

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In Tview Premium this week I include some new regular graphs showing levels of fixed mortgage rates over the past few years. I also introduce a new weekly section where I will look at housing markets at the local authority level showing the underlying change in house prices and whether things look to be over or under-heated. This week I look at Auckland’s old seven city/district areas plus local authorities from the Far North down to Hauraki. All parts of the country will be covered over each six week period.

• I also remind businesses about the still worsening labour supply situation.
• Households this year will have their budgets squeezed by high inflation exceeding wages growth. The eventual wages catch-up will stretch out the period of high inflation and add upside risks to already rising interest rates.
• I examine some key economic indicators to see how they compare with where they were just before Covid-19 appeared.